MVP (Maurice Podoloff Trophy)
Candidates: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Steve Nash
Winner: LeBron James
This looks to be a repeat MVP year for the King. Kobe has been injured and has a better team around him. Wade is still carrying an even worse team, but his stats are down a bit this year (plus he will always be the Evgeni Malkin of the NBA, where LeBron is Ovechkin and Kobe is Crosby, meaning it will take a lot more for him to gain the kind of recognition that the other two get regularly). I think the writers still want to wait a few years with Durant, as they don't want any major distractions from their golden boy LeBron. Nash is 36 and having one of the best seasons of his life, but in the end is slightly less valuable to his team than LeBron, which is hard for me to have to say. Carmelo looks to be Bron's biggest competition this year, but like Kobe, he has been injured a fair amount this year, and in my opinion is not even the most valuable player on his team (Chauncey Billups makes everyone, including Carmelo, better). Carmelo has beaten LeBron in both of their matchups this year, including last Thursday when he hit the game winning shot over LeBron in OT in Cleveland, which might raise some eyebrows. But in the end, LeBron is the most marketable athlete on the planet now that Tiger Woods puts babies in porn stars, and the NBA and the voters will want to keep him at the forefront of the league for many years to come, which will net him several MVP trophies down the road.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR (Eddie Gottlieb Trophy)
Candidates: Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson, DeJuan Blair
Winner: Tyreke Evans
All five of these players listed could win Rookie of the Year if they were in different rookie classes, but unfortunately for them, only one of them can win this year. The bottom line is none of these players means more to their respective team as a rookie than Evans. With Kevin Martin traded to the Rockets, he is without question the best player in Sacramento. Brandon Jennings is close to him, but Evans has better statistics and is just better (I don't think you can shoot 37% from the field and win R.O.Y. Brandon, sorry). Stephen Curry is an offensive dynamo who can shoot his way out of any situation, but might as well just sit on the scorer's table while his team is on defense. Lawson is flourishing in the backup point guard position in Denver, but that is what hurts him, he is a backup and being mentored by one of the best PG's in the game while Jennings and Evans are starters. Blair has been a big surprise in San Antonio, putting up solid numbers and being a legitimate contributor off the bench, and he probably would win Rookie of the Year if Jennings and Evans weren't in this class. As for Evans, he is the only rookie averaging 20 or more points this season, he is his team's go-to guy in crunch time and throughout most of the game, he is massively talented, and he can't even drink legally until September. He is a slam dunk for Rookie of the Year.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Candidates: Dwight Howard, Marcus Camby, Andrew Bogut, Ron Artest
Winner: Dwight Howard
This award is hard to predict. You don't know if the voters will base it on rebounds, blocks and steals, opponents' FG %, or something else entirely. Considering 7 of the last 8 winners have been big men (with the only non-big man winner in that stretch being Ron Artest in 2003-2004), I think they lean more towards rebounds, blocks and steals along with how much the player can change a game defensively. In the end, I think a dominant big man can change the game more defensively than a stopper on the wing. Blocked shots are much more harmful to an opposing player's psyche than missed, contested shots. And a defensive possession isn't over until your team gets the ball, which makes rebounding so important as well. All of these candidates have won the award before except Bogut, who is having a career year in rebounding and blocked shots. However, he is not nearly as dominant and game-changing as Howard, who should win the award for the second year. I feel Artest's name should always be thrown into the hat for this award when he is healthy, but again, he doesn't change the game like Howard does. Camby is having a similar season to when he won the award in Denver (to much angry debate), but Howard wasn't established as a rebounding and shot blocking machine yet back then. Funneling scorers to Dwight Howard is about the best defensive move you can make in a game, as he will most likely block or alter the shot, as well as grab the board. Look for him to win this award many, many times.
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
Candidates: Lamar Odom, Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, J.R. Smith, Manu Ginobili
Winner: Jamal Crawford
This one is tough. I'm tired of Jason Terry winning this award, and I think it will come down to Terry and Crawford. Odom is good, but so lazy and so bad in that Charles Barkley Taco Bell commercial, he will be overlooked. Smith can be a huge spark off the bench for the Nuggets, but he is only shooting 33% from three this year, which is his specialty, and he can still take a lot of bad shots which hurt the team just as much. Ginobili is having another decent sixth man season, but unfortunately for him, I think the highlight of his season has already come and passed when he killed that bat on Halloween. Comparing Terry and Crawford, Terry is averaging almost 17 pts and 4 assists while shooting 35.8% from three, while Crawford is averaging 17.5 pts and almost 3 assists while shooting 37.7% from three. When it comes down to it, I think Crawford means more to his team this year than Terry does, especially with the new additions Dallas added at the deadline. Crawford is more capable of providing instant offense and should win this year.
MOST IMPROVED PLAYER AWARD
Candidates: Marc Gasol, Gerald Wallace, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, Rajon Rondo
Winner: Gerald Wallace
This might be the hardest award of them all to pick. There are more than usual deserving players for this award this year. Gasol has upped most of his numbers, and has become more important to his team, but not important enough in my opinion. Brooks and Landry both showed lots of potential last year and have turned into better all around players. Rondo has become much more important to an aging Celtics team, and has improved most of his numbers as well. But I refuse to give any award to a guard who is shooting 24% from three and 59% from the free throw line this year, that is deplorable. I feel that no player on this list has turned into a more complete player this year than Gerald Wallace, who has upped his scoring and turned into a rebounding machine. He has also upped his shooting numbers and is one of the two most important players on a playoff team. It's iffy, but I think he should win.
COACH OF THE YEAR (Red Auerbach Trophy)
Candidates: Larry Brown (Bobcats), Jay Triano (Raptors), Scott Brooks (Thunder), Jerry Sloan (Jazz), Mike Brown (Cavaliers), Mike Woodson (Hawks), Stan Van Gundy (Magic)
Winner: Jerry Sloan
With the Jazz's recent tear they're on, I think Sloan will finally win the Coach of the Year Award that he has seemingly deserved every year he has coached but never won. His best player, Deron Williams, has been injured a fair amount this season, and not really himself for a lot of the games he's been healthy. He continues to turn a group of role players along with a big name or two into a contending team, as he has done year after year. The Jazz are almost unbeatable at home when they are healthy, and Sloan always does a masterful job preparing his team and getting them to execute in games. He has made names like Paul Millsap and C.J. Miles recognizable, and he needs to win it this year to make up for countless years of getting overlooked. There are always a lot of worthy candidates for this award, and I think Jerry Sloan's time is finally here.
FIRST TEAM ALL-NBA
C - Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
F - LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
F - Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets
G - Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
G - Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
I changed and re-changed this list more than ten times before I finally settled on the five. Also keep in mind, while I have predicted what I think the NBA will do in my other award choices, this list is more my own First Team All-NBA team than what I think the NBA will do (I just don't think the NBA has it in 'em to leave Kobe off this list). There were some names that were hard to leave off of this list, namely Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant. Durant is an absolutely phenomenal player who I think can be overlooked down in OKC. I think he will go the Carmelo Anthony route, and spend a few frustrating years on the Second Team All-NBA team before finally breaking through to the First Team. He is just the third forward in a race for 2 spots where the other two guys are LeBron and Carmelo, who both play for better, more marketable teams. As for Bryant, his injuries haven't helped his cause (Carmelo Anthony has also had injuries, but he is having a much more breakout and noticeably awesome year than Kobe). Howard is the clear choice for the Center position, as he can dominate a game defensively and shoots a high percentage in the paint. It's obvious that LeBron should be on this list, and I'm not going to go into a LeBron swoon-fest like every media outlet does every time the Cavs play. Like I said before, I think this is the year Carmelo finally deserves to legitimately be First Team instead of Second. He has been undeniably awesome this year for the Nuggets, and has beaten LeBron head to head twice, and Kobe once (he was injured for the second Nuggets-Lakers game). Next, if Dwyane Wade wasn't playing in Miami I think the Heat might legitimately have zero fans show up for a few games, and probably between 5 and 50 for the rest (they would basically be like a WNBA team). Every year he keeps the Heat at least somewhat relevant, and puts the team on his back every night. Winning the All Star Game MVP will help his cause as well. Finally, Steve Nash has benefitted from the Phoenix Suns' now legendary training staff, and he might be playing his best basketball ever at the age of 36. Every team needs a point guard, even a just-for-fun First Team All NBA team, and I wouldn't want anyone but Steve Nash on this list this year (despite my huge love for my hometown Chauncey).
Now it's time to sit back and see just how incorrect I will be at the end of the season.
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